Why I disagree with Adrian Shooter on HS2

Yesterday Phil Tonks broadcast his interview with Adrian Shooter. In it, he asked Adrian - a well-known supporter of HS2 - about his views on HS2. Not surprisingly, Adrian said he was in favour and gave two key reasons: first, Evergreen 3 had proved that Chiltern was running to line capacity; and secondly, that HS2 would spin-off economic benefits from London...

I am not a supporter of HS2 and I didn't find Adrian's arguments convincing. Take capacity... one of the weaknesses of Evergreen 3 is that it failed to reinstate the through tracks at stations such as Bicester North, Beaconsfield, and High Wycombe. Indeed, at Bicester North, the Up platform was actually moved rather than install points and a new line (for cost reasons apparently). Already, Chiltern are reaping what they have sown as Mainline trains are delayed by stopping trains failing to get to their refuge sidings as timetabled.

Further north, much of the four track infrastructure between Dorridge and Tyesley still exists, providing further opportunities for capacity improvements. And of course, more could be done at Wembley.

What surprises me most about the capacity argument is the seeming lack of faith in the development of signalling and train control infrastructure. HS2 is a long-term project YET it seems that the rail industry believes that the situation in 2026 will be that of 2011 when it is more than likely that capacity increases will come from leaps forward in signalling technology.

As for the economic argument... Chiltern's own fare structure gives lie to it. To even tempt people in London to travel to Birmingham, the company is forced to price its morning peak trains from Marylebone at £25 return whilst pricing the Birmingham London flow at £75. The reality is that work will flow from Birmingham to London at an even faster rate with HS2 as Birmingham becomes simply a dormitory city to London...

Clearly, I have not got Adrian's 41 year track record of success in the rail industry, but I have got 35 years' experience of working in the UK 'regions'. HS2 is an expensive white elephant of a project which will NOT benefit Birmingham.